National Accounts, Prices and Labour Market, 2026
This release establishes the Republic's economic baseline for the year ending 30 June 2026. Values are in Republic Dollars (R$) at current prices unless stated otherwise. Annual 2026 values combine observed data for three quarters with a National Statistical Office estimate for the final quarter; they are therefore a statistical vintage, not an exact ledger of every transaction.
Measurement and uncertainty
The Republic's continental scale produces three persistent gaps. Small and informal work is under-recorded; state and municipal accounts close on different timetables; and multinational groups can book profits in a different state from the workers and assets that generated them. The central estimates below are used for budgeting and reconciliation. Ranges are shown where source disagreement is material.
Domestic sources using an unqualified dollar sign refer to the Republic Dollar. GDP per person uses the 1,246.0 million mid-year resident population. GDP per worker uses 553.6 million employed residents aged 15–64; a supplementary series including older workers is slightly lower per head and is not used here.
Output and growth
| Measure | 2026 estimate |
|---|---|
| Nominal gross domestic product | R$52.8 trillion |
| Real GDP, chained 2021 prices | R$47.1 trillion |
| Nominal GDP per resident | R$42,375 |
| Nominal GDP per employed resident aged 15–64 | R$95,376 |
| Real GDP growth | 1.5% |
| Real output per hour growth | 0.6% |
| Hours worked growth | 0.9% |
| Potential real growth range | 1.7–2.2% |
Six-year series
| Year ending June | Nominal GDP (R$tn) | Real GDP growth | Output per hour growth | CPI inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 41.0 | 3.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| 2022 | 43.8 | 3.1% | 1.2% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | 46.6 | 2.4% | 0.9% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | 49.0 | 1.7% | 0.5% | 4.2% |
| 2025 | 50.9 | 1.3% | 0.3% | 3.7% |
| 2026 | 52.8 | 1.5% | 0.6% | 3.4% |
Growth slowed as housing, refinancing and infrastructure capacity tightened. North Lantern demand supported defence, shipping, vehicles, electronics and metals but diverted skilled labour and capital from civilian maintenance. National growth therefore conceals recessionary conditions in some timber, quarry, old-industry and high-debt municipal economies.
Gross value added by sector
| Sector | Share of gross value added | 2026 condition |
|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | 4.6% | Weather and freight exposed; high capital intensity |
| Mining and primary materials | 4.2% | Strong export prices, rising rehabilitation costs |
| Manufacturing | 18.4% | Defence and machinery firm; household durables weak |
| Energy, water and waste | 3.7% | Grid investment strong; maintenance and fuel imports costly |
| Construction | 7.1% | Infrastructure active; residential connections and labour constrain completions |
| Wholesale, retail, transport and hospitality | 12.2% | Port and freight volume high; household discretionary demand weak |
| Finance, property and professional services | 18.8% | Reserve-currency finance strong; property and regional credit diverge |
| Information, communications and media | 6.0% | Secure systems and software grow; access remains uneven |
| Public administration, health and education | 18.1% | Employment grows more slowly than caseload and demand |
| Arts, personal and other services | 6.9% | Metropolitan recovery offset by household caution |
| Total | 100.0% | — |
Regional output
Output is assigned to the location of work and production, not corporate headquarters. The confidence range is wider for finance, digital services, electricity and multi-state freight.
| Region | States or area | Share of GDP | GDP per resident | Real growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Territory | The Capital Territory | 8.6% | R$108,100 | 1.9% |
| Goldmere financial basin | Goldmere | 6.7% | R$92,850 | 1.4% |
| Eastern ports and works belt | Averwick, Eastmarch, Prosward, Caldersay, Seabourne, Waverlynd, Norhaven | 19.5% | R$48,900 | 1.2% |
| Northern and resource states | Northmark, Karsfell, Skeldmere, Iverness, Durnholt, Veyrholm, Thornmere, Aelbridge, Morcant, Highmere, Eldermere | 9.0% | R$34,700 | 0.4% |
| Western corridor | Westmere, Arcliff, Westrake, Redwold, Mirrenden, Brackenfell, Selworth, Rookvale, Harrowby, Lydmere, Glassmere | 23.4% | R$46,800 | 2.2% |
| Central and southern system | remaining twenty states | 32.8% | R$35,900 | 1.4% |
| Total | Republic | 100.0% | R$42,375 | 1.5% |
The high Capital figure reflects federal government, finance, property rents, headquarters services and specialised professional work. It is not an ordinary household income. Northern output is understated where subsistence, treaty revenue, public logistics and unpriced household production are significant; resource output is overstated as a measure of welfare where profits leave the state and rehabilitation liabilities remain.
Prices and household expenditure
Headline consumer-price inflation was 3.4%; the trimmed core measure was 3.0%. Food inflation was 4.1%, housing and utilities 4.8%, transport 3.7% and discretionary goods 1.6%. The national index understates pressure in northern settlements, where heating and freight matter more, and in high-cost metropolitan rentals, where newly signed rents rise faster than the average stock.
Representative household basket
| Division | Weight | Annual inflation |
|---|---|---|
| Housing, rent, mortgage service and routine maintenance | 29.0% | 4.8% |
| Food and non-alcoholic drink | 16.0% | 4.1% |
| Transport and vehicle operation | 12.0% | 3.7% |
| Energy, water and household utilities | 8.0% | 5.2% |
| Health and care paid directly | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Clothing and household goods | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Communications and digital services | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| Education and childcare paid directly | 5.0% | 3.9% |
| Recreation, culture and hospitality | 8.0% | 2.7% |
| Insurance, financial and other services | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Total | 100.0% | 3.4% |
The representative basket is an index, not a claim that an ordinary household pays every item. Owners without a mortgage, private renters, older households, students, northern residents and families needing childcare face markedly different weights.
Money, credit and exchange
| Measure at 30 June 2026 | Rate or value |
|---|---|
| Monetary Authority policy rate | 4.25% |
| Overnight interbank rate | 4.18% |
| Typical new five-year fixed owner-occupier mortgage | 5.7% |
| Typical variable mortgage | 6.1% |
| Typical secured small-business borrowing | 6.8–8.4% |
| Typical unsecured small-business borrowing | 9.5–14.0% |
| Ten-year federal bond yield | 4.62% |
The Republic Dollar floats. The Monetary Authority intervenes only to restore market function or rebuild reserves, not to defend a fixed level. At the reference date R$100 purchased 74.2 Ward crowns, 112.6 Veyran sols, 93.4 Cordainian cords or 88.1 units of the allied settlement basket. The trade-weighted Republic Dollar index stood at 106.8, where 2020 averages 100.
Reserve-currency demand lowers federal funding costs and supports foreign-currency settlement through Republic banks. It also raises the exchange rate during crises, making civilian exports less competitive and transmitting foreign demand for Republic assets into domestic property and bond markets.
External trade and payments
| Measure | 2026 value | Share of GDP |
|---|---|---|
| Exports of goods | R$8.3tn | 15.7% |
| Exports of services | R$4.1tn | 7.8% |
| Total exports | R$12.4tn | 23.5% |
| Imports of goods | R$9.5tn | 18.0% |
| Imports of services | R$3.3tn | 6.3% |
| Total imports | R$12.8tn | 24.2% |
| Trade balance | -R$0.4tn | -0.8% |
| Net income and transfers | +R$0.03tn | +0.1% |
| Current-account balance | -R$0.37tn | -0.7% |
The allied states of Cordaine, Bellisar and Terenza account for 24% of total trade; neutral Westphalian states 21%; Lydon, Marentine, Karth and Sorell 14%; other neutral and developing economies 25%; and licensed direct or indirect Syndicate trade 16%. The Syndicate share is concentrated in fuel, bulk materials, machinery components and settlement chains that are difficult to classify by ultimate origin.
Principal exports are machinery, vehicles, aircraft and ship systems, chemicals, software and professional services, finance, grain and processed food, metals, energy equipment and transport services. Principal imports are fuel, semiconductors, specialist machinery, chemical precursors, consumer electronics, coffee and tropical food, medicines and selected strategic minerals.
Public finance
| General-government measure | 2026 value | Share of GDP |
|---|---|---|
| Tax and compulsory social revenue | R$17.74tn | 33.6% |
| Other revenue | R$1.64tn | 3.1% |
| Public expenditure | R$20.54tn | 38.9% |
| Overall deficit | R$1.16tn | 2.2% |
| Federal gross debt | R$35.90tn | 68.0% |
| Consolidated state gross debt | R$8.71tn | 16.5% |
| Municipal and utility debt | R$2.69tn | 5.1% |
| Intergovernmental holdings eliminated on consolidation | R$4.12tn | 7.8% |
| Consolidated general-government gross debt | R$43.18tn | 81.8% |
Federal debt finances defence, pensions, equalisation, national infrastructure and crisis support. State debt finances hospitals, schools, transport, water and development agencies. Municipal debt is smaller nationally but dangerous locally because a declining tax base can leave the authority responsible for networks built for a larger population.
North Lantern emergency spending was R$420 billion in 2026, including deployment, replenishment, medical care, family support and allied assistance. Only R$280 billion is classified as defence consumption; the remainder appears in transfers, inventories and capital formation.
Household credit and arrears
| Measure | 2026 value |
|---|---|
| Household debt | R$38.5tn, 72.9% of GDP |
| Mortgage debt | R$29.0tn |
| Vehicle, education, medical and other consumer debt | R$9.5tn |
| Mortgage balances 90 days or more in arrears | 2.4% |
| Consumer balances 90 days or more in arrears | 4.9% |
| Households with any serious arrears | 6.8% |
| Annual personal insolvencies | 3.6 million |
Arrears are highest in old industrial districts, recent high-deposit metropolitan mortgages, farm regions after poor harvests and settlements where insurance or heating costs rose sharply. Lenders use forbearance, term extension and payment plans, but these arrangements can postpone recognition of loss.
Labour market
The age 15–64 baseline reconciles directly to the Demographic Ledger.
| Measure | 2026 estimate |
|---|---|
| Working-age population, 15–64 | 791.2 million |
| Labour force, 15–64 | 581.5 million |
| Participation rate, 15–64 | 73.5% |
| Employment, 15–64 | 553.6 million |
| Unemployment | 27.9 million, 4.8% |
| Underemployment | 48.2 million, 8.7% of employment |
| Advertised and registered vacancies | 18.2 million |
| Long-term unemployment, 12 months or more | 7.5 million |
| Union density among employees | 31.8% |
| Collective-bargaining coverage | 44.0% |
| Median full-time salary | R$43,800 |
| Average full-time salary | R$55,300 |
Vacancies coexist with unemployment because housing, distance, credentials, care duties, language, security clearance and shift transport prevent matching. Care, teaching, haulage, sanitation, maintenance, construction, emergency services and remote utilities report chronic shortages while routine clerical and retail applicants exceed vacancies.
Public administration employs 41.5 million people across federal, state, treaty and municipal bodies, excluding health and education delivery. Federal core departments and agencies employ 8.9 million; state administrations 17.6 million; municipalities and local authorities 13.8 million; and recognised treaty administrations 1.2 million. Their average caseloads vary from fewer than 100 complex regulatory files per specialist to more than 6,000 active residents per local benefits or migration officer.
Income and wealth
Median disposable income is R$42,000 per equivalised adult, matching the demographic poverty baseline. Median unequivalised disposable income per private household is R$78,600; this cannot be multiplied by 467 million households to derive national income because household size, imputed rent and non-cash services are treated differently in the national accounts.
| Equivalised disposable-income percentile | Annual income |
|---|---|
| 10th | R$18,900 |
| 25th | R$29,500 |
| 50th | R$42,000 |
| 75th | R$63,000 |
| 90th | R$96,500 |
| 99th | R$270,000 |
| Wealth measure | 2026 estimate |
|---|---|
| Gross household assets | R$248tn |
| Household liabilities | R$38.5tn |
| Net household wealth | R$209.5tn |
| Gross residential housing wealth | R$116tn |
| Net residential housing wealth | R$87tn |
| Top 1% share of net wealth | 18% |
| Top 10% share | 51% |
| Middle 40% share | 41% |
| Bottom 50% share | 8% |
Housing wealth is concentrated in mature owners in the Capital, Goldmere, Westrake, Westmere, Dunmere and commuter states. Land-rich farm and treaty households may report substantial assets with low cash income. Renters, recent migrants, younger adults and residents of declining towns hold less collateral even when their earnings are similar.
Business population and insolvency
The National Business Register contains 156 million current legal persons, of which 61 million report economic activity and 38 million employ at least one person other than an owner. Dormant entities, charities, co-operatives, property vehicles and seasonal businesses explain much of the difference.
| Annual flow | 2026 estimate |
|---|---|
| New business registrations | 9.8 million |
| Voluntary closures and deregistrations | 8.9 million |
| Employer births | 3.4 million |
| Employer deaths | 3.1 million |
| Corporate insolvencies | 1.26 million |
| Insolvencies involving ten or more workers | 96,000 |
Formation is strongest in personal services, software, construction trades, logistics and professional work. Closures are concentrated in hospitality, marginal retail, small construction, indebted farms and supplier firms exposed to one large customer. Insolvency counts overstate final disappearance because assets and workers may transfer to a buyer; they understate distress where owners close informally or refinance tax arrears.
Reconciliation controls
- Sector shares and regional shares each sum to 100.0%.
- GDP per resident uses 1,246.0 million residents.
- Labour force equals employment plus unemployment within rounding tolerance.
- Household-debt components sum to total household debt.
- Tax revenue, expenditure and debt ratios use nominal GDP of R$52.8 trillion.
- Exports and imports include goods and services; the current account also includes income and transfers.
- A later statistical revision must identify the series, vintage and reason rather than silently replacing this baseline.
Related sources
- Demographic Ledger of the Republic controls population, households and demographic labour denominators.
- Currency, Central Bank and Payments controls monetary institutions and payment systems.
- Housing System of the Republic controls tenure, mortgage and housing-stock interpretation.
- Regional Economic Cycle Ledger explains regional transmission and firm trajectories.
- Republic Revenue Agency records tax administration and collection performance.